If you work in UK technology, you'll probably agree that 2023 has been one of the more challenging years. It's been especially tough for those in the contracting and interim profession where demand has dropped to zero and roles have been thin on the ground. The slow market has also affected people who recruit for technologists, where briefs have been few and far between.
The geopolitical situation that fuelled this current state of the market has been discussed to death. However, the resulting market dynamic has left many technologists out of employment and in extremely precarious situations. On the flip side, many tech business owners and leadership teams are feeling confident in their position and pleased with the turn of events that's lead to the 'new normal' of an employer (rather than candidate) lead market.
In recent weeks I've had numerous conversations with business leaders and agencies across the market who are making 'big plans' for 2024. Strategies are being built, budgets are being signed off and excitement is in the air. The great bounce back is upon us and we're all going to fill our teams with the oversupply of exceptionally 'on point' UK talent that's sitting on the bench waiting for us to be pulled into the folds of our beer and pizza fueled digital businesses.
So about that...
I want you to cast your minds back to 2018. It was a different, arguably much simpler time. In another market, a pre-Covid, pre-Ukraine airline industry had a long standing and painful shortage of pilots. Not only were there not enough pilots, but they couldn't train pilots fast enough to offset the ones who were retiring and leaving the industry. Competition was fierce and salaries/packages were competitive.
In a story we know all too well, in 2019 the world essentially stopped spinning and demand for international air travel fell off a cliff. The huge demand for commercial pilots disappeared. In a few short weeks an industry where talent was in high demand, had an oversupply of pilots and a large pool of unemployed. At the airlines, the strategy for airline pilot resourcing was simple, identify the available pilots in the market so when the time comes, we can reach into that pool and put aircraft back in the air and start making money.
Each airline's pool of available pilots was large and gave a high level of confidence of their ability to scale when the time came. There was only one problem. The pool of talent wasn't unique to each airline and everybody was pulling from the same pool of available talent. Roll forward to 2022 and airlines reached into their pool of talent only to find hundreds of other hands reaching in as well. Before you knew it, the pool was dry and in a whiplash unlike many we've known in recent time - the pilot shortage was back and this time it was so severe that it's lead to well publicised chaos.
It's important to understand that the demand for air travel didn't really go anywhere, the market conditions just suppressed it.
Moving back to digital technology and I shouldn't need to further spell out the parallels. We have historically had a skills shortage in UK technology with competition for top talent being fierce. Market conditions have created an atmosphere of significant caution over the last 12 months which has changed the resourcing dynamics in the favor of employers. However, it's important to realise that while there are fractionally more available candidates in the market, it's the slowdown of opportunity that's created the false impression that there is a glut of available talent - not a sudden influx of high quality candidates.
Let me say that one more time for emphasis.
'It's the slowdown of opportunity that's created the false impression that there is a glut of available talent - not a sudden influx of high quality candidates.'
Like it or not, we live in a capitalist economy that's dependent on growth. Private, funded or listed companies must show growth and progress as a primary measure of success. Technology businesses especially, require skilled and experienced team members to achieve those goals. The pressure from investors, board members and shareholders for 2024 to be a 'return to form' is building rapidly and one of the biggest barriers to business success is going to be the availability of quality and experienced talent to help deliver it.
Since the summer we've slowly but surely started to see an uptick in hiring for more junior roles. More recently, I've been hearing from recruiters that they are again facing challenges sourcing quality UX and Software engineering candidates.
2024 is setting it's self up for an almighty calamity, with a market perception that leaves business leaders confident of their ability to scale and the reality being in stark contrast. With experience yet again being in short supply, advantage goes to the first movers.
